Publications by Jason Smerdon

1. Coats, S., J. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, R. Seager, E.R. Cook and K. Achukaitis, 2016: Internal ocean-atmsophere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America. Nature, 43: 9886–9894, doi:10.1002/2016GL070105. PDF
2. Beltrami, H. , G. Matharoo and J.E. Smerdon, 2015: Ground surface temperature and continental heat gain in a warming climate: Uncertainties from underground. Environ. Res. Lett.: in press.
3. Beltrami, H., G. S. Matharoo and J. E. Smerdon, 2015: Impact of borehole depths on reconstructed estimates of ground surface temperature histories and energy storage. Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 120(5): 763-778. PDF ABS
4. Coats, S. , B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon and R. Seager, 2015: North American Pancontinental Droughts in Model Simulations of the Last Millennium. J. Climate, 28: 2025-2043, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00634.1. PDF
5. Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager, 2015: Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced? J. Climate, 28: 124-142, doi: PDF
6. Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, D. Griffin and B.I. Cook, 2015: Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-century perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons. J. Geo. Res. - Atmos., 120: 8052–8064, doi:10.1002/2015JD023085. PDF
7. Cook, B.I., RT.R. Ault and J.E. Smerdon, 2015: Unprecedented 21st-Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. Science Advances: 1-7, :e140008. PDF
8. Esper, J., L. Schneider, J.E. Smerdon, B. Schöne and U. Büntgen, 2015: Signals and memory in tree-ring width and density data. Dendrochronologia: in press. PDF
9. Li, B., X. Zhang and J.E. Smerdon, 2015: Skill Assessments of Climate Field Reconstructions. J. Amer. Statis. Assoc.: submitted. PDF
10. Pretis, F., L. Schneider and J.E. Smerdon, 2015: Detection of Designed Break Functions with an Application to Volcanic Impacts on Hemispheric Surface Temperatures, Annals of Applied Statistics. Annals Applied Statistics: in review. PDF
11. Schneider, L., J.E. Smerdon, U. Büntgen, RJ.S. Wilson, V.S. Myglan, A.V. Kirdyanov and J.Esper, 2015: Revising mid-latitude summer-temperatures back to AD 600 based on a wood density network. Geo. Res. Let., 42: 4556-4562, doi:10.1002/2015GL063956. PDF
12. Smerdon, J. E., B. I. Cook, E. R. Cook and R. Seager, 2015: Bridging Past and Future Climate across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study. Journal of Climate, 28(8): 3212-3231. PDF ABS
13. Smerdon, J.E., S. Coats and T.R. Ault, 2015: Model-Dependent Spatial Skill in Pseudoproxy Experiments Testing Climate Field Reconstruction Methods for the Common Era. Clim Dyn.: 2684, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2684-0. PDF
14. Williams, A.P., R. Seager, J.T. Abatzoglou, B.I. Cook and J.E. Smerdon, 2015: Contribution of anthropogenic warming to the 2012–2014 California drought. Geo. Res. Let., 42: 6819–6828, doi:10.1002/2015GL064924. LINK PDF
15. Ballard, T., R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, A.J. Ray, B. Rajagopalan, Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura and N. Henderson, 2014: Hydroclimate Variability and Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, the “Duck Factory” of North America. Earth Interactions, 18(No. 14): 1-28, DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-14-0004.1. PDF
16. Beltrami, H., G.S. Matharoo, L. Tarasov, V. Rath and J.E. Smerdon, 2014: Numerical Studies on the Impact of the Last Glacial Cycle on recent borehole temperature profiles: impications for terrestrial energy balance. Climate of the Past, 10: 1693-1706, doi:10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014. PDF
17. Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and E.R. Cook, 2014: Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium. J. Climate, 27: 383-397, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00100.1. PDF
18. Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and Sloan Coats, 2014: Global Warming and Drought in the 21st Century. Clim. Dyn.: DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y. PDF
19. Cook, B.I., R. Seager and J.E. Smerdon, 2014: The worst North American drought year of the last millennium: 1934. Geo. Res. Let., 41: doi:10.1002/2014GL061661. PDF
20. Evans, M.N., J.E. Smerdon, A. Kaplan, S.E. Tolwinski-Ward and J.F. Gonzalez-Rouco, 2014: Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors. Geo. Res. Let., 41: doi:10.1002/2014GL062063. PDF
21. Kaufman, D., K. Anchukaitis, U. Büentgen, J. Emile-Geay, M. N. Evans, H. Goosse, J. Luterbacher, J. Smerdon, M. Tingley and L. von Gunten, 2014: A Community-Driven Framework for Climate Reconstructions EOS, 95(40): 361-368. PDF
22. Wahl, E. R., H. F. Diaz, J. E. Smerdon and C. M. Ammann, 2014: Late winter temperature response to large tropical volcanic eruptions in temperate western North America: Relationship to ENSO phases. Global and Planetary Change, 122: 238-250, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.005. PDF ABS
23. Wang, J., J. Emile-Geay, D. Guillot, J. E. Smerdon and B. Rajaratnam, 2014: Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions. Climate of the Past, 10(1): 1-19, doi:10.5194/cp-10-1-2014. PDF ABS
24. Ahmed, M., K. J. Anchukaitis, A. Asrat, H. P. Borgaonkar, M. Braida, B. M. Buckley, U. Buntgen, B. M. Chase, D. A. Christie, E. R. Cook, M. A. J. Curran, H. F. Diaz, J. Esper, Z. X. Fan, N. P. Gaire, Q. S. Ge, J. Gergis, J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco, H. Goosse, S. W. Grab, N. Graham, R. Graham, M. Grosjean, S. T. Hanhijarvi, D. S. Kaufman, T. Kiefer, K. Kimura, A. A. Korhola, P. J. Krusic, A. Lara, A. M. Lezine, F. C. Ljungqvist, A. M. Lorrey, J. Luterbacher, V. Masson-Delmotte, D. McCarroll, J. R. McConnell, N. P. McKay, M. S. Morales, A. D. Moy, R. Mulvaney, I. A. Mundo, T. Nakatsuka, D. J. Nash, R. Neukom, S. E. Nicholson, H. Oerter, J. G. Palmer, S. J. Phipps, M. R. Prieto, A. Rivera, M. Sano, M. Severi, T. M. Shanahan, X. M. Shao, F. Shi, M. Sigl, J. E. Smerdon, O. N. Solomina, E. J. Steig, B. Stenni, M. Thamban, V. Trouet, C. S. M. Turney, M. Umer, T. van Ommen, D. Verschuren, A. E. Viau, R. Villalba, B. M. Vinther, L. von Gunten, S. Wagner, E. R. Wahl, H. Wanner, J. P. Werner, J. W. C. White, K. Yasue, E. Zorita and Pages 2k Consortium, 2013: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience, 6(5): 339-346. PDF ABS
25. Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager, 2013: Stationarity of the tropical Pacific teleconnection North America in CMIP5/PMIP3 Model Simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40: doi:10.1002/grl.50938. PDF
26. Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, B.I. Cook and J.F. Gonzáez-Rouco, 2013: Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions. J. Climate, 26: 7635-7649, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00603.1. PDF
27. Tierney, J. E., J. E. Smerdon, K. J. Anchukaitis and R. Seager, 2013: Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean. Nature, 493(7432): 389-392, doi:10.1038/nature11785. PDF ABS
28. Werner, J. P., J. Luterbacher and J. E. Smerdon, 2013: A Pseudoproxy Evaluation of Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling and Canonical Correlation Analysis for Climate Field Reconstructions over Europe. Journal of Climate, 26(3): 851-867. PDF ABS
29. Karnauskas, K.B., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and J.F. Gonzáles-Roucho, 2012: A Pacific Centennial Oscillation Predicted by Coupled GCMs. J. Climate, 25: 5,943-5961, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00421.1. PDF
30. Li, B. and J.E. Smerdon, 2012: Defining spatial assessment metrics for evaluation of paleoclimatic field reconstructions of the Common Era. Evnironmetrics: doi:10.1002/env.2142. PDF
31. Smerdon, J.E., 2012: Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments. WIREs Climate Change(3): 63-67, doi:10.1002/wcc.149. PDF
32. Wahl, E.R. and J.E. Smerdon, 2012: Comparative performance of paleoclimatic field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors. Geo. Res. Let., 39, L06703: doi:10.1029/2012GL051086. PDF
33. Beltrami, H., J. E. Smerdon, G. S. Matharoo and N. Nickerson, 2011: Impact of maximum borehole depths on inverted temperature histories in borehole paleoclimatology. Climate of the Past, 7(3): 745-756, doi:10.5194/cp-7-745-2011. PDF ABS
34. D'Arrigo, R., R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon, A.N. LeGrande and E.R. Cook, 2011: The anomalous winter of 1783-1784: Was the Laki eruption or an analog of the 2009-2010 winter to blame? Geo. Res. Lett. , 38: L05706, doi:10.1029/2011GL046696. PDF
35. Smerdon, J.E., 2011: Discussion of: A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable? Annals of Applied Statistics, 5(1): 76-79. PDF
36. Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan, D. Chang and M.N. Evans, 2011: A Pseudoproxy Evaluation of the CCA and RegEM Methods for Reconstructing Climate Fields of the Last Millennium. J. Climate, 24: 1284-1309, DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI4110.1. PDF
37. Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan, E. Zorita and J.F. González-Rouco, 2011: Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Ear. Geo. Res. Lett., 38: L11705, doi:10.1029/2011GL047372. PDF
38. Lesperance, M., J.E. Smerdon and H. Beltrami, 2010: Propagation of linear surface air temperature trends into the terrestrial subsurface. J. Geophys. Res., 115(D21115): DOI:10.1029/2010JD014377. PDF
39. Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan and D.E. Amrhein, 2010: Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications. J. Climate, 23: DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3742.1. PDF
40. Smerdon, J. E., H. Beltrami, C. Creelman and M. B. Stevens, 2009: Characterizing land surface processes: A quantitative analysis using air-ground thermal orbits. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 114: doi:10.1029/2009JD011768. PDF ABS
41. D'Arrigo, R. , R. Allan, R. Wilson, . Palmer, J. Sakulich, J. E. Smerdon, S. Bijaksana and L. Ode Ngkoimani, 2008: Pacific and Indian Ocean climate signals in a tree-ring record of Java monsoon drought. International Journal of Climatology, 28(1889-1901): doi:10.1002/joc.1679. PDF
42. D'Arrigo, R. and J.E. Smerdon, 2008: Tropical climate influences on drought variability over Java, Indonesia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35(L05707): doi:10.1029/2007GL032589. PDF
43. Smerdon, J. E. , J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco and E. Zorita, 2008: Comment on "Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods" by Michael E. Mann et al. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113(D18106): doi:10.1029/2007JD009542. PDF
44. Smerdon, J. E., A. Kaplan and D. Chang, 2008: On the Origin of the Standardization Sensitivity in RegEM Climate Field Reconstructions. Journal of Climate, 21(24): 6710-6723, DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2182.1. PDF ABS
45. Hegerl, G. C. , T. J. Crowley, M. Allen, W. T. Hyde, H. N. Pollack, J. E. Smerdon and E. Zorita, 2007: Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction, Journal of Climate, pp. 650-666. PDF
46. Smerdon, J. E. and A. Kaplan, 2007: Comment on 'Testing the fidelity of methods used in proxy-based reconstructions of past climate': The role of the standardization interval, by Mann et al. Journal of Climate, 20(22): 5666-5670. PDF
47. Stevens, M. B. , J. E. Smerdon, J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco, M. Stieglitz and H. Beltrami, 2007: Effects of bottom boundary placement on subsurface heat storage: Implications for climate model simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, pp. L02702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028546. PDF
48. Stieglitz, M. and J. E. Smerdon, 2007: Characterizing land-atmosphere coupling and the implications for subsurface thermodynamics. Journal of Climate, 20: 21-37. PDF
49. Pollack, H. N. , S. Huang and J. E. Smerdon, 2006: Five centuries of climate change in Australia: The view from underground, Journal of Quaternary Science, pp. 701-706. PDF
50. Smerdon, J. E. and M. Stieglitz, 2006: Simulating heat transport of harmonic temperature signals in the Earth's shallow subsurface: Lower-boundary sensitivities. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(L14402): doi:10.1029/2006GL026816. PDF
51. Smerdon, J. E., H. N. Pollack, V. Cermak, J. W. Enz, M. Kresl, J. Safanda and J. F. Wehmiller, 2006: Daily, seasonal and annual relationships between air and subsurface temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., 111(D07101): doi:10.1029/2004JD005578. PDF ABS
52. Pollack, H. N., J. E. Smerdon and P. E. vanKeken, 2005: Variable seasonal coupling between air and ground temperatures: A simple representation in terms of subsurface thermal diffusity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15405: doi:10.1029/2005GL023869. PDF
53. Pollack, H. N. and J. E. Smerdon, 2004: Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 109(D11): doi:10.1029/2003JD004163. PDF ABS
54. Smerdon, J. E., H. N. Pollack, V. Cermak, J. W. Enz, M. Kresl, J. Safanda and J. F. Wehmiller, 2004: Air-ground temperature coupling and subsurface propagation of annual temperature signals. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 109(D21): doi:10.1029/2004JD005056. PDF ABS
55. Lin, X. H., J. E. Smerdon, A. W. England and H. N. Pollack, 2003: A model study of the effects of climatic precipitation changes on ground temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 108(D7): doi:10.1029/2002JD002878. PDF ABS
56. Pollack, H. N., D. Y. Demezhko, A. D. Duchkov, I. V. Golovanova, S. P. Huang, V. A. Shchapov and J. E. Smerdon, 2003: Surface temperature trends in Russia over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth, 108(B4): doi:10.1029/2002JB002154. PDF ABS
57. Smerdon, J. E., H. N. Pollack, J. W. Enz and M. J. Lewis, 2003: Conduction-dominated heat transport of the annual temperature signal in soil. Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth, 108(B9): doi:10.1029/2002JB002351. PDF ABS
58. Beltrami, H., J. E. Smerdon, H. N. Pollack and S. P. Huang, 2002: Continental heat gain in the global climate system. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(8): doi:10.1029/2001GL014310. PDF ABS

The database was updated today.

Maintained by: Virginia DiBlasi, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University