LDEO
LAMONT-DOHERTY EARTH OBSERVATORY
THE EARTH INSTITUTE AT COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY
Abrupt Climate Change
blank
blank blank blank
blank blank blank
LDEO
blank
Home
Divisions
LDEO Search
blank
Abrupt CC
blank
Home
Q&A
Contacts
Research
Links
blankblank
blank back to Q&A

8: Is there a "mild" or less severe form that abrupt climate change can take?

Most probably. It is, in truth, highly unlikely that a new ice age will happen as a result of greenhouse warming (Weaver and Hillaire-Marcel, 2004). It has been observed that the thermohaline circulation has been slowing down rather smoothly in the last decade (Hansen et al 2001). It could simply continue to do so.

On the contrary, it is expected (and sometimes even observed) that as a response to human-induced warming, quite abrupt changes will occur not on a global, but on a regional scale: one example is the drying of the Sahel in the seventies, and persistent drought since, which is perhaps one step on the path to the future climate.

Another example is the 76/77 "Climate Shift" that originated in the tropical Pacific but had significant impacts on North American climate and fisheries.

A relevant question is not whether but when, in your area of interest, an abrupt change in precipitation and water availability will ensue with a few decades. This is very difficult to forecast, and climate modelers are currently working seriously on this issue.

References

Hansen, B., W. Turrell, and S. Østerhus. "Decreasing Overflow from the Nordic Seas into the Atlantic Ocean Through the Faroe Bank Channel Since 1950," in Nature, Vol. 411, June 21, 2001

Weaver AJ, Hillaire-Marcel C, Global warming and the next ice age, Science, 304 (5669): 400-402 APR 16 2004

 

next Q&A

blank

blank
 
blank blank blank
 Abrupt Climate
Change
Quick Links
NOAA paleoclimatology
NGDC
Research at LDEO:
Modeling
Observations
Paleoclimate
NAS report
NAS Report on
Abrupt Climate Change
NOAA logo
LDEO CORC/ARCHES
Project
blank blank blank
LDEO
Abrupt Climate
Change
conveyor
The trigger for the Younger Dryas
NaramSin
Cultural responses to climate change
Sun Image
Solar influence on climate change
blankblankblank
Maintained by: Naomi Naik, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University

LDEO home | search | webmaster | site map | terms-of-use | support LDEO
Copyright © 2003 by The Trustees of Columbia University in the City of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
All rights reserved.