Predicting the Dust Bowl

drought

LAMONT-DOHERTY EARTH OBSERVATORY THE EARTH INSTITUTE AT COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY
	Drought Research

Global Decadal Hydroclimate

Western North American Climate


	Publications: The following research papers on North American drought and its global context can be downloaded: NOAA DROUGHT TASK FORCE ASSESSMENT REPORT: Causes and Predictability of the 2011 to 2014 California Drought Baek, S. H., N. Steiger, J. Smerdon and R. Seager, 2019: Oceanic drivers of widespread drought in the United States over the Common Era, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 8721-8280, doi:10.1029/2019GL082838. PDF Steiger, N., J. Smerdon, R. Seager, B. Cook and A. P. Williams, 2019: Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American southwest, Sci. Adv., 5, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax0087. PDF Seager, R., M. Ting and J. Nakamura, 2019: Mechanisms of seasonal soil moisture drought onset and termination in the southern Great Plains, J. Hydromet., 32, 751-771. PDF Seager, R., A. P. Williams, J. Nakamura and J. Axelson, 2019: Analysis and modeling of interannual timescale coupling between drought and bark beetles across the American West, in prep. PDF Baek, H., J. E. Smerdon, R. Seager, A. P. Williams and B. I. Cook, 2019: Pacific Ocean forcing and atmospheric variability are the dominant causes of spatially widespread droughts in the contiguous United States, J. Geophys. Res., 124, 2507-2524. PDF Cook, B., R. Seager, A. P. Williams, M. J. Puma, S. McDermid, M. Kelly and L. Nazarenko, 2019: Climate change amplification of natural drought variability: The historic mid-twentieth century North American drought in a warmer world, J. Climate, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0832.1. PDF Cook, B. I., A.P. Williams, J.S. Mankin, R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon and D. Singh, 2018: Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the Contiguous United States, J. Climate, 31, 25-43. PDF Seager, R., N. Henderson, M.A. Cane, H. Liu and J. Nakamura, 2017: Is there a role for human-driven climate change in the precipitation decline that drove the California drought?, J. Climate, 30, 10237-10258. PDF Seager, R. and M. Ting, 2017: Decadal drought variability over North America: Mechanisms and predictability, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., doi 10.1007/s40641-017-0062-1. PDF Williams, A.P., B. I. Cook, J. E. Smerdon, D. A. Bishop and R. Seager, 2017: The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., doi:10.1002/2017JD027523. PDF Baek, H. S., J. E. Smerdon, S. Coats, A. P. Williams, B. I. Cook, E. R. Cook and R. Seager, 2017: Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases, J. Climate, 30, 7141-7155. PDF Coats, S., K. Karnauskas, J. Smerdon and R. Seager, 2016: The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Env. Res. Lett., 11, 074025, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074025. PDF Coats, S., J. Smerdon, B. Cook, R. Seager, E. Cook and K. Anchukaitis, 2016: Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 98869894, doi:10.1002/2016GL070105. PDF Schubert, S., R. Stewart, H. Wang, M. Barlow, E. Berbery, W. Cai, M. Hoerling, K. Kanikicharla, R. Koster, B. Lyon, A. Mariotti, C. Mechoso, O. Muller, B. Rodriguez-Fonseca, S. Seneviratne R. Seager, L. Zhang and T. Zhou, 2016: Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits. J. Climate: DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0452.1. PDF Cook, B., E. Cook, J. E. Smerdon, R. Seager, A. P. Williams, S. Coats, D. W. Stahle and J. Villanueva-Diaz, 2016: North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations. WIREs Clim. Change doi: 10.1002/wcc.394. PDF Seager, R., and E.R. Cook, 2015: Medieval megadroughts in the Four Corners region: Characterization and causes. Presentation: The Society for American Archaeology, Austin, Texas, April 2007. PDF Cook, E. R., R. Seager, Y. Kushnir, K. Briffa, U. Buntgen, D. Frabk, P. Krusic, W. Tegel, G. van der Schrier, L. Andreu-Hayles, M. Baillie, C. Baitttinger, A. Billamboz, N. Bleicher, N. Bonde, D. Brown, M. Carrer, R. Cooper, K. Cufar, C. Dittmar, J. Esper, C. Giggs, B. Gunnarson, B. Gunther, E. Gutierrez, K. Haneca, S. Helema, F. Herzig, K.-U. Heussner, J. Hofman, P. Janda, R. Kontic, N. Kose, T. Kyncl, T. Levanic, H. Linderholm, S. Manning, T. Melvin, D. Miles, B. Neuwirth, K. Nicolussi, P. Nola, M. Panayotov, I. Popa, A. Rothe, K. Seftigen, A. Seim, H. Svarva, M. Svoboda, T. Thun, M. Timonen, R. Touchan, V. Trotsiuk, V. Truet, F. Walder, T. Wazny, R. Wilson, C. Zang, 2015: Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era.Science Adv., 10.1126/sciadv.1500561. PDF Williams, A.P., R. Seager, J.T. Abatzoglou, B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon and E.R. Cook, 2015: Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-1014. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi:10.1002/2015GL064924. PDF, Supplemental Williams, A.P., R. Seager, A.K. Macalady, M. Berkelhammer, M.A. Crimmins, T.W. Swetnam, A.T. Trugman, N. Buenning, D. Noone, N.G. McDowell, N. Hryniw, C.I. Mora and T. Rahn, 2015: Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest fire area in the southwest United States. Inter. J. Wildland Fire, 24, 14-26, http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF14023. PDF Cook, B.I., R. Seager and J.E. Smerdon, 2014: The worst North American drought year of the last millennium: 1934. Geophys. Res. Lett, 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL061661. PDF Hoerling, M., J. Eischeid, A. Kumar, R. Leung, A. Mariotti, K. Mo, S. Schubert and R. Seager, 2014: Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: 269-282. PDF Seager, R., D. Neelin, I. Simpson, H. Liu, N. Henderson, T. Shaw, Y. Kushnir, M. Ting and B. Cook, 2014: Dynamical and thermodynamical causes of large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle over North America in response to global warming. J. Climate, 27, 7921-7948. PDF Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and S. Coats, 2014: Global warming and 21st century drying. Climate Dynamics,43, 2607-2627, doi:10.1007/s00382-014- 2075-y. PDF Williams, A.P., C.D. Allen, A.K. Macalady, D. Griffin, C.A. Woodhouse, D.M. Meko, T.W. Swetnam, S.A. Rauscher, R. Seager, H.D. Grissino-Mayer, J.S. Dean, E.R. Cook, C. Gangodagamage, M. Cai and N.G. McDowell, 2013: Temperature as a potent drive of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality. Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 292-297, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1693. PDF Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, B.I. Cook and J.F. Gonzalez-Rouco, 2013: Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions. J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00603.1. PDF Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and E.R. Cook, 2013: Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium. J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00100.1. PDF Cook, B.I., and R. Seager, 2013: The response of the North American Monsoon to increased greenhouse gas forcing. Geophys. Res (Atmos.), 118, 1960-1699, doi: 10:1002/jgrd.50111. PDF Kelley, C., M. Ting, R. Seager and Y. Kushnir, 2012: Mediterranean precipitation climatology, seasonal cycle, and trend as simulated by CMIP5. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L21703, doi:10.1029/2012GL053416. PDF Seager, R., L. Goddard, J. Nakamura, N. Henderson and D. Lee, 2013: Dynamical causes of the 2010/11 Texas-northern Mexico drought. J. Hydrometeorology, 15, 39-68, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-13-024.1. PDF Seager, R. and N. Naik, 2012: A mechanisms-based approach for detecting recent anthropogenic hydroclimate change. J. Climate, 25, 1, 236-261. PDF Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager and L. Cuihua, 2011: Robust features of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and its climate impacts. GRL, 38, L17705, doi:10.1029/2011GL048712. PDF Cook, B.I., R. Seager and R.L. Miller, 2011: The impact of devegetated dune fields on North American climate during the late Medieval Climate Anomaly. Geo. Res. Lett., 38, L14704, doi:10.1029/2011GL047566. PDF Seager, R., N. Pederson, Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura and S. Jurburg, 2011: The 1960s drought and the subsequent shift to a wetter climate in the Catskill Mountains region of the New York City watershed. J. Climate, 25, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00518.1, 6,721-6,742. PDF Seager, R., N. Naik and L. Vogel, 2011: Does global warming cause intensified interannual hydroclimate variability? J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00363.1, PDF Burgman, R., R. Seager, A. C. Clement and C. Herweijer, 2010: Role of tropical Pacific SSTs in global medieval hydroclimate: A modeling study. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37(L06705): doi: 10.1029/2009GL042239. PDF Cook, B.I., R. Seager and R. Miller, 2010: On the causes and dynamics of the early twentieth century North American pluvial. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4201.1. PDF Cook, B.I., R. Seager and R. Miller, 2010: Atmospheric circulation anomalies during two persistent North American droughts: 1932-1939 and 1948-1957. Climate Dynamics: doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0807-1.PDF Cook, B.I., E.R. Cook, K.J. Anchukaitis, R. Seager and R. L. Miller, 2010: Forced and unforced variability of twentieth century North American droughts and pluvials. Climate Dynamics: doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0897-9. PDF Kushnir, Y. , R. Seager, M. Ting, N. Naik and J. Nakamura, 2010: Mechanisms of Tropical Atlantic SST Influence on North American Precipitation Variability. Journal of Climate, 23, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3172.1. PDF Seager, R., N. Naik and G.A. Vecchi, 2010: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Climate, 23: 4651-4668. PDF Seager, R., N.H. Naik, M.F. Ting, M.A. Cane, N. Harnik, Y. Kushnir, 2010: Adjustment of the atmospheric circulation to tropical Pacific SST anomalies: Variability of transient eddy propagation in the Pacific-North America sector. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 136: 277-296, doi: 10.1002/qj.588. PDF Seager, R. and Vecchi, G.A., 2010: Greenhouse warming and the 21st Century hydroclimate of southwestern North America, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0709640104. PDF Cook, B.I., R. L. Miller and R. Seager, 2009: Amplification of the North American Dust Bowl drought through human-induced land degradation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106(13): 4997-5001. PDF Cook, E.R., R. Seager, R.R. Heim, R.S. Vose, C. Herweijer, C. Woodhouse, 2009: Megadroughts in North America: Placing IPCC Projections of Hydroclimatic Change in a Long-Term Paleoclimate Context. Journal of Quaternary Science, doi: 10.1002/jqs.1303. PDF Karnauskas KB, Seager R, Kaplan A, Kushnir Y, Cane MA, 2009: Observed strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, Journal of Climate, 22, 4316-4321. PDF Seager, R., M. Ting, M. Davis, M.A. Cane, N. Naik, J. Nakamura, C. Li, E. Cook and D.W. Stahle, 2009: Mexican drought: An observational, modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate change, Atmosfera, 22, (1), 1-31. PDF Seager, R., A. Tzanova and J. Nakamura, 2009: Drought in the Southeastern United States: Causes, variability over the last millennium and the potential for future hydroclimate chan ge, Journal of Climate, 22, 5021-5045. PDF Stahle, D.W., E.R. Cook, J. Villanueva Díaz, F. K. Fye, D. J. Burnette, R. D. Griffin, R. Acuña Soto, R. Seager, and R. R. Heim Jr., 2009: Early 21st-Century Drought in Mexico, EOS, Vol. 90, No. 11, March 2009, 89-100. PDF Cook, B.I., R.L. Miller and R. Seager, 2008: Dust and sea surface temperature forcing of the 1930's 'Dust Bowl' drought. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L08710, doi: 10.1029/2008GL033486. PDF Herweijer, C. and R. Seager, 2008: The Global Footprint of Persistent Extra-tropical Drought in the Instrumental Era. International Journal of Climatology, 28(13): 1761-1774. PDF Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, M.F. Ting, M. Cane, N. Naik and J. Velez, 2008. Would advance knowledge of 1930s SSTs have allowed prediction of the Dust Bowl drought? Journal of Climate, 21, p. 3261-3281, doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI2134.1. PDF Cook, E.R., R. Seager, M.A. Cane and D.W. Stahle, 2007: North American Drought: Reconstructions, Causes, and Consequences. Earth Science Reviews, 81, 93-134. PDF Herweijer, C., R. Seager, E.R. Cook and J. Emile-Geay, 2007: North American Droughts of the last Millennium from a Gridded Network of Tree-ring Data. Journal of Climate, 20, 1353-1376. PDF Schubert, Siegfried, Randal Koster, Martin Hoerling, Richard Seager, Dennis Lettenmaier, Arun Kumar and David Gutzler, 2007: Predicting Drought on Seasonal-to-Decadal Time Scales. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88(10): 1625-1630. PDF Seager, R., M.F. Ting, I.M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez, N. Naik, 2007: Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America, Science, 316, (5828), 1181 - 1184 doi: 10.1126/science.1139601. PDF Seager, R., R. Burgman, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, E. Cook, N. Naik and J. Velez, 2007: Tropical Pacific forcing of North American Medieval megadroughts: Testing the concept with an atmosphere model forced by coral-reconstructed SSTs, Journal of Climate, 21(23): 6175-6190. PDF Seager, R., Graham N., Herweijer, C., Gordon, A.L., Kushnir, Y. and E. Cook, 2007: Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate. Quat. Sci. Rev., doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.04.020. PDF Seager, R., 2007: The Turn of the Century drought across North America: global context, dynamics and past analogues. Journal of Climate. Vol. 20, 5527-5552. PDF Herweijer, C., R. Seager and E.R. Cook, 2006: North American Droughts of the mid-to-late Nineteenth Century: a history, simulation and implication for Mediaeval drought. The Holocene, 16, 159-171. PDF Huang, H.-P., R. Seager and Y. Kushnir, 2005: The 1976/77 transition in precipitation over the Americas and the influence of tropical SST. Clim. Dyn., 24: 721-740.PDF Seager, R. , N. Harnik, W. A. Robinson, Y. Kushnir, M. Ting, H. Huang and J. Velez, 2005: Mechanisms of ENSO-forcing of hemispherically symmetric precipitation variability. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 131: 1501-1527. PDF Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, C. Herweijer, N. Naik and J. Velez, 2005: Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856-2000. Journal of Climate, 18, (19), 4068-4091. PDF Cook, E.R., C.A. Woodhouse, C.M. Eakin, D.M. Meko and D.W. Stahle, 2004: Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science. 306(5698): 1015-1018.PDF Karspeck, A.R., R. Seager, and M.A. Cane, 2004: Predictability of tropical Pacific decadal variability in an intermediate model, Journal of Climate, 17, (14), 2842-2850.PDF Seager, R., A, Karspeck, M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Giannini, A. Kaplan, B. Kerman and J. Miller, 2004: Predicting Pacific decadal variability. In Earth Climate: The ocean-atmosphere interaction, C. Wang, S.-P. Xie and J. A. Carton, Eds., 105-120, American Geophysical Union, Washington DC. PDF

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