Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University 61 Route 9W Palisades, NY 10964

Other, more general, publications on North American and Global Hydroclimate Variability and Change can be found here: Drought Research here:

NOAA DROUGHT TASK FORCE ASSESSMENT REPORT: Causes and Predictability of the 2011 to 2014 California Drought


Cook, B., A.P. Williams, J. Mankin, R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon and D. Singh, 2018: Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the contiguous United States. J. Climate: 31, 25-43, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0172.1.

Seager, R., J. Feldman, N. Lis, M. Ting, A.P. Williams, J. Nakamura, H. Liu and N. Henderson, 2018: Wither the 100th meridian? The once and future physical and human geography of America's arid-humid divide. Part I: The story so far. Earth Interactions, 22, 5, p1, DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-17-0011.1.

Seager, R., J. Feldman, N. Lis, M. Ting, A.P. Williams, J. Nakamura, H. Liu and N. Henderson, 2018: Wither the 100th meridian? The once and future physical and human geography of America's arid-humid divide. Part II: The meridian moves fast. Earth Interactions, 22, 5, p1, DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-17-0012.1.

Ting, M., R. Seager, C. Li, H. Liu, and N. Henderson, 2018: Mechanism of Future Spring Drying in the Southwest U.S. in CMIP5 Models*. J. Climate,
doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0574.1, in press.


Cook, B.I., A. Williams, J. Mankin, R. Seager, J. Smerdon, and D. Singh, 2017: Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the Contiguous United States. J. Climate, 31, 25-43, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0172.1.

Jong, B.-T., M. Ting, R. Seager and D.-E. Lee, 2017: Role of equatorial Pacific SST forecast error in the late winter California precipitation forecast for 2015/16 El Niño. J. Climate, 31, 839-852, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0145.1.

Anderson, W., R. Seager, W. Baethgen and M. Cane, 2017: Crop production variability in North and South America forced by life-cycles of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Ag. Forest. Meteor., 239, 151-165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.03.008.

Baek, H. S., J. E. Smerdon, S. Coats, A. P. Williams, B. I. Cook, E. R. Cook and R. Seager, 2017: Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases. J. Climate, 7141-7155, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0766.1.

Biasutti, M., R. Seager and D. Kirschbaum, 2017: Landslides in West Coast Metropolitan areas: the role of extreme weather events. Weather and Climate Extremes, 14, 67-79, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2016.11.004.

Mankin, J.S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, A.P. Williams and R. Seager, 2017. The curious case of projected 21st-century drying but greening in the American West. J. Climate, 8689-8710, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0213.1.

Pascolini-Campbell, M.A., R. Seager, A. Pinson and B.I. Cook, 2017: Covariability of Climate and Upper Rio Grande StreamflowJ. Hydrology: Regional Studies 13, 58-71, doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.07.007.

Scheff, J., R. Seager, H. Liu and S. Coats, 2017: Are glacials dry? Consequences for paleoclimatology and for greenhouse warming. J. Climate, 30, 6593-6609, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0854.1.

Seager, R. and M. Ting, 2017: Decadal drought variability over North America: Mechanisms and predictability. Curr. Clim. Change Rep.,  1-9, doi:10.1007/s40641-017-0062-1.

Seager, R. , N. Henderson, M.A. Cane, H. Liu and J. Nakamura, 2017: Is There a Role for Human-Induced Climate Change in the Precipitation Decline that Drove the California Drought? J. Climate, 30: 10237-10258, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0192.1.

Williams, A.P. , B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon, D.A. Bishop, R. Seager and J.S. Mankin, 2017: The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling. Geo. Res. Atmos., 122(20): 10888-10905, doi:10.1002/2017JD027523.


Anderson, W. A., R Seager, W. Baethgen and M.A. Cane, 2016: Life cycles of agriculturally-relevant ENSO teleconnections in North and South America. Inter. J. Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.4916.

Coats, S., J. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, R. Seager, E.R. Cook and K. Achukaitis, 2016: Internal ocean-atmsophere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America. Geo. Res. Letts., 43(18), 9886–9894, doi:10.1002/2016GL070105.

Coats, S., J. E. Smerdon, K. B. Karnauskas and R. Seager, 2016: The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Environmental Research Letters, 11(7), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074025.

Cook, B.I., E. Cook, J. E. Smerdon, R. Seager, A. P. Williams, S. Coats, D. W. Stahle and J. Villanueva-Diaz, 2016: North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations. WIREs Clim. Change, doi: 10.1002/wcc.394.

Greene, A.M. and R. Seager, 2016: Categorical representation of North American precipitation projections. Nature, Scientific Reports, 6:23888: doi:10.1038/srep23888.

Jong, B.-T., M. Ting and R. Seager, 2016: El Niño's impact on California precipitation: seasonality, regionality, and El Niño intensity. Environ. Res. Lett., 11: 1 - 8, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054021.

Schubert, S., R. Stewart, H. Wang, M. Barlow, E. Berbery, W. Cai, M. Hoerling, K. Kanikicharla, R. Koster, B. Lyon, A. Mariotti, C. Mechoso, O. Müller, B. Rodriguez-Fonseca, R. Seager, S. Seneviratne, L. Zhang, and T. Zhou, 2016: Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D- 15-0452.1.

Seager, R., 2016: Physical Mechanisms of the California Drought. In Harvard College review of the environment and society "Weathering the Great California Drought". p. 1-5.

Seager, R. and N. Henderson, 2016: On the role of tropical ocean forcing of the persistent North American west coast ridge of winter 2013/14a. J. Climate, 29: 8027 - 8049, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0145.1.

Seager, R. and I.R. Simpson, 2016: Western boundary currents and climate change. J. Geo. Res.: Oceans, 121: doi:10.1002/2016JC012156.


Seager, R., and E.R. Cook, 2015: Medieval megadroughts in the Four Corners region: Characterization and causes. Presentation: The Society for American Archaelogy, Austin, Texas, April 2007.

Biasutti, M., and R. Seager, 2015: Projected changes in US rainfall erosivity. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2945–2961, doi:10.5194/hess-19-2945.

Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, D. Griffin and B.I. Cook, 2015: Winter-to-summer precipitation phasing in southwestern North America: A multicentury perspective from paleoclimatic model-data comparisons. J. Geo. Res.: Atmos.,120, 8052-8064, doi:10.1002/2015JD023085.

Coats, S., B. Cook, J. Smerdon, and R. Seager, 2015: North American Pan-Continental Drought in Model Simulations of the Last Millennium. J. Climate, 28, 5, 2025-2043, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00634.1.

Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager, 2015: Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced? J. Climate, 28, 124-142, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00071.1.

Pascolini-Campbell, M.A., R. Seager, D.S. Gutzler, B.I. Cook and D. Griffin, 2015: Causes of Interannual to Decadal Variability of Gila River Streamflow over the past Century. J. Hydrol. Regional Sys., 3, doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.02.013, 494-508.

Seager, R, M. Hoerling, S. Schubert, H. Wang, B. Lyon, A. Kumar, J. Nakamura, N. Henderson, 2015: Causes of the 2011 to 2014 California drought. J. Climate, 28, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00860.1, 6997-7024.

Seager, R., A. Hooks, A.P. Williams, B. Cook, J. Nakamua and N. Henderson, 2015: Climatology, Variability and Trends in U.S. Vapor Pressure Deficit, an Important Fire-Related Meteorological Quality. J. App. Meteor. Climat., 54, 1121-1141, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0321.1.

Simpson, I.R., R. Seager, M. Ting and T.A. Shaw, 2015: Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional winds and regional hydroclimate. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2783.

Smerdon, J.E., B.I. Cook, E.R. Cook and R. Seager, 2015: Bridging Past and Future Climate Across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study. J. Climate, 28: 3213-3231, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00417.1.

Williams, A.P., R. Seager, J.T. Abatzoglou, B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon and E.R. Cook, 2015: Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi:10.1002/2015GL064924. Supplemental

Williams, A.P., R.E. Schwartz, S. Lacobellis, R. Seager, B.I. Cook, C.J. Still, G. Husak and J. Michaelsen, 2015: Urbanization causes increased cloud base height and decreased fog in coastal Southern California. Geo. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1002/2015GL063266.


Ballard, T., R. Seager, J. Smerdon, B. Cook, A.J. Ray, B. Rajagopalan, Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura and N. Henderson, 2014: Hydroclimate Variability and Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, the “Duck Factory” of North America. Earth Interactions, V18, N14, p 1-28.

Cook, B.I., R. Seager and J.E. Smerdon, 2014: The worst North American drought year of the last millennium: 1934. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL061661.

Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, and E.R. Cook, 2014: Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium. J. Climate, 27, 1, 383-397, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00100.1.

Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and S. Coats, 2014: Global warming and 21st century drying. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y.

Seager, R. and M. Hoerling, 2014: Atmosphere and Ocean Origins of North American Droughts. J. Climate, 27: 4581-4606.

Seager, R., L. Goddard, J. Nakamura, N. Henderson and D. Lee, 2014: Dynamical causes of the 2010/11 Texas-northern Mexico drought. J. Hydrometeorology, 15, 39-68, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-13-024.1.

Seager, R., D. Neelin, I. Simpson, H. Liu, N. Henderson, T. Shaw, Y. Kushnir, M. Ting and B. Cook, 2014: Dynamical and thermodynamical causes of large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle over North America in response to global warming. J. Climate, 27: 7921-7948, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00153.1.

Williams, A.P., R. Seager, M. Berkelhammer, A. Macalady, M. Crimmins, T. Swetnam, A. Trugman, N. Buenning, N. Hryniw, N. McDowell, D. Noone, C. Mora and T. Rahn, 2014: Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwest United States. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, 2671-2684, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0053.1.

Williams, A.P., R. Seager, A.K. Macalady, M. Berkelhammer, M.A. Crimmins, T.W. Swetnam, A.T. Trugman, N. Buenning, D. Noone, N.G. McDowell, N. Hryniw, C.I. Mora and T. Rahn, 2014: Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest fire area in the southwest United States. Inter. J. Wildland Fire, 24, 14-26, http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF14023.


Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager, 2013: Stationarity of the tropical pacific teleconnection to North America in CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4927–4932, doi:10.1002/grl.50938.