Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University 61 Route 9W Palisades, NY 10964

Other, more general, publications on North American and Global Hydroclimate Variability and Change can be found here: Drought Research here:

NOAA DROUGHT TASK FORCE ASSESSMENT REPORT: Causes and Predictability of the 2011 to 2014 California Drought


Baek, H. S., J. E. Smerdon, S. Coats, A. P. Williams, B. I. Cook, E. R. Cook and R. Seager, 2017: Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases. J. Climate, submitted.

Jong, B.-T., M. Ting, R. Seager and D.-E. Lee, 2017: Equatorial Pac
ific SST forecast error introduced a wet biased California precipitation forecast during the late winter of the 2015/16 El Niño. J. Climate, submitted.

Pascolini-Campbell, M., R. Seager, A. Pinson and B. Cook, 2017: Covariability of climate and streamflow of the upper Rio Grande. J. Hydrol. Reg. Proc., submitted.

Scheff, J., R. Seager, H. Liu and S. Coats, 2017: Are glacials dry? Consequences for paleoclimatology and for greenhouse warming. J. Climate, submitted.

Anderson, W., R. Seager, W. Baethgen and M. Cane, 2017: Crop production variability in North and South America forced by life-cycles of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Ag. Forest. Meteor., 239, 151-165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.03.008.

Biasutti, M., R. Seager and D. Kirschbaum, 2017: Landslides in West Coast Metropolitan areas: the role of extreme weather events. Weather and Climate Extremes, 14, 67-79, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2016.11.004.

Seager, R. and M. Ting, 2017: Decadal drought variability over North America: Mechanisms and predictability. Curr. Clim. Change Rep.,  1-9, doi:10.1007/s40641-017-0062-1.


Anderson, W. A., R Seager, W. Baethgen and M.A. Cane, 2016: Life cycles of agriculturally-relevant ENSO teleconnections in North and South America. Inter. J. Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.4916.

Coats, S., J. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, R. Seager, E.R. Cook and K. Achukaitis, 2016: Internal ocean-atmsophere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America. Geo. Res. Letts., 43(18), 9886–9894, doi:10.1002/2016GL070105.

Coats, S., J. E. Smerdon, K. B. Karnauskas and R. Seager, 2016: The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Environmental Research Letters, 11(7), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074025.

Cook, B., E. Cook, J. E. Smerdon, R. Seager, A. P. Williams, S. Coats, D. W. Stahle and J. Villanueva-Diaz, 2016: North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations. WIREs Clim. Change, doi: 10.1002/wcc.394.

Greene, A.M. and R. Seager, 2016: Categorical representation of North American precipitation projections. Nature, Scientific Reports, 6:23888: doi:10.1038/srep23888.

Jong, B.-T., M. Ting and R. Seager, 2016: El Niño's impact on California precipitation: seasonality, regionality, and El Niño intensity. Environ. Res. Lett., 11: 1 - 8, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054021.

Schubert, S., R. Stewart, H. Wang, M. Barlow, E. Berbery, W. Cai, M. Hoerling, K. Kanikicharla, R. Koster, B. Lyon, A. Mariotti, C. Mechoso, O. Müller, B. Rodriguez-Fonseca, R. Seager, S. Seneviratne, L. Zhang, and T. Zhou, 2016: Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits. J. Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D- 15-0452.1.

Seager, R. and N. Henderson, 2016: On the role of tropical ocean forcing of the persistent North American west coast ridge of winter 2013/14a. J. Climate, 29: 8027 - 8049, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0145.1.

Seager, R. and I.R. Simpson, 2016: Western boundary currents and climate change. J. Geo. Res.: Oceans, 121: doi:10.1002/2016JC012156.


Seager, R., and E.R. Cook, 2015: Medieval megadroughts in the Four Corners region: Characterization and causes. Presentation: The Society for American Archaelogy, Austin, Texas, April 2007.

Cook, B.I., R. Seager, D.J. Burnette and A.J. Ray, 2015: Seasonal shifts in hydroclimate and 21st century warming in Western North America. J. Hydrometeorology, submitted.

Biasutti, M., and R. Seager, 2015: Projected changes in US rainfall erosivity. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2945–2961, doi:10.5194/hess-19-2945.

Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, D. Griffin and B.I. Cook, 2015: Winter-to-summer precipitation phasing in southwestern North America: A multicentury perspective from paleoclimatic model-data comparisons. J. Geo. Res.: Atmos.,120, 8052-8064, doi:10.1002/2015JD023085.

Coats, S., B. Cook, J. Smerdon, and R. Seager, 2015: North American Pan-Continental Drought in Model Simulations of the Last Millennium. J. Climate, 28, 5, 2025-2043, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00634.1.

Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager, 2015: Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced? J. Climate, 28, 124-142, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00071.1.

Pascolini-Campbell, M.A., R. Seager, D.S. Gutzler, B.I. Cook and D. Griffin, 2015: Causes of Interannual to Decadal Variability of Gila River Streamflow over the past Century. J. Hydrol. Regional Sys., 3, doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.02.013, 494-508.

Seager, R, M. Hoerling, S. Schubert, H. Wang, B. Lyon, A. Kumar, J. Nakamura, N. Henderson, 2015: Causes of the 2011 to 2014 California drought. J. Climate, 28, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00860.1, 6997-7024.

Seager, R., A. Hooks, A.P. Williams, B. Cook, J. Nakamua and N. Henderson, 2015: Climatology, Variability andTrends in U.S. Vapor Pressure Deficit, an Important Fire-Related Meteorological Quality. J. App. Meteor. Climat., 54, 1121-1141, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0321.1.

Simpson, I.R., R. Seager, M. Ting and T.A. Shaw, 2015: Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional winds and regional hydroclimate. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2783.

Smerdon, J.E., B.I. Cook, E.R. Cook and R. Seager, 2015: Bridging Past and Future Climate Across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study. J. Climate, 28: 3213-3231, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00417.1.

Williams, A.P., R. Seager, J.T. Abatzoglou, B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon and E.R. Cook, 2015: Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi:10.1002/2015GL064924. Supplemental

Williams, A.P., R.E. Schwartz, S. Lacobellis, R. Seager, B.I. Cook, C.J. Still, G. Husak and J. Michaelsen, 2015: Urbanization causes increased cloud base height and decreased fog in coastal Southern California. Geo. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1002/2015GL063266.


Ballard, T., R. Seager, J. Smerdon, B. Cook, A.J. Ray, B. Rajagopalan, Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura and N. Henderson, 2014: Hydroclimate Variability and Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, the “Duck Factory” of North America. Earth Interactions, V18, N14, p 1-28.

Cook, B.I., R. Seager and J.E. Smerdon, 2014: The worst North American drought year of the last millennium: 1934. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL061661.

Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, and E.R. Cook, 2014: Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium. J. Climate, 27, 1, 383-397, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00100.1.

Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and S. Coats, 2014: Global warming and 21st century drying. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y.

Seager, R. and M. Hoerling, 2014: Atmosphere and Ocean Origins of North American Droughts. J. Climate, 27: 4581-4606.

Seager, R., L. Goddard, J. Nakamura, N. Henderson and D. Lee, 2014: Dynamical causes of the 2010/11 Texas-northern Mexico drought. J. Hydrometeorology, 15, 39-68, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-13-024.1.

Seager, R., D. Neelin, I. Simpson, H. Liu, N. Henderson, T. Shaw, Y. Kushnir, M. Ting and B. Cook, 2014: Dynamical and thermodynamical causes of large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle over North America in response to global warming. J. Climate, 27: 7921-7948, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00153.1.

Williams, A.P., R. Seager, M. Berkelhammer, A. Macalady, M. Crimmins, T. Swetnam, A. Trugman, N. Buenning, N. Hryniw, N. McDowell, D. Noone, C. Mora and T. Rahn, 2014: Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwest United States. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, 2671-2684, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0053.1.

Williams, A.P., R. Seager, A.K. Macalady, M. Berkelhammer, M.A. Crimmins, T.W. Swetnam, A.T. Trugman, N. Buenning, D. Noone, N.G. McDowell, N. Hryniw, C.I. Mora and T. Rahn, 2014: Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest fire area in the southwest United States. Inter. J. Wildland Fire, 24, 14-26, http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF14023.


Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager, 2013: Stationarity of the tropical pacific teleconnection to North America in CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4927–4932, doi:10.1002/grl.50938.